DineEquity, owner of Applebees and IHOP brands, is trying smartly trying to avoid discounting their menu like the rest of industry. Their strategy to get customers in the door focus on appealing healthy “skillets” price at $9+ which currently make up about 10% of sales.

The “2 for $20″ deal of an appetizer and two entrees now makes up 18% of Applebee’s sales mix, down from around 20% in previous quarters, Stewart said. Applebee’s promoted that offer through most of last year but has since made it a mainstay on the menu that’s not supported prominently by ads.Applebee’s margins rose slightly last quarter, to 14.1% to 14%, helped by lower food costs, although that was offset partly by more marketing to try to bring in guests.

Same-store sales were down 1.6% at Applebee’s systemwide, an improvement from prior quarters, while guest counts continued to decline on year.

You’re a franchisee and your financial and operational problems are snowballing out of control.  The result is you’re not operating in compliance and you’re late on payments to the franchisor, and the franchisor decides that you need to stop operating.   How does the franchisor shut down your store using the courts?

See Krispy Kreme v Satellite Donuts (franchisee)

Nick Lanni, the founder of Great Steak & Potato Co. (founded in 1982, sold in 2004 with 260 locations), is starting a new sandwich concept at my alma mater, Miami University in Oxford, OH. The concept is called “SoHi Grilled Sandwiches” and is supposed to be a fresh grilled build-your-own cheese steak and burger place.

Coincidentally, his sons started the 25 locations Currito: Burritos Without Borders.

Average unit sales were $1.4 million per company-owned Jack in the Box location and $900,000 per Qdoba system location in fiscal 2009.

source: Morningstar

This relates to the previous blog post as it illustrates another great company selling its corporate owned stores. Donatos, who happens to make my favorite pizza, announced it sold 39 locations to a franchisee, Titan.  Titan now owns all 23 Donatos stores in Indianapolis and 16 of the 22 in Cincinnati. The other Cincinnati locations are owned by other franchisees.

The focus on franchising was originally announced in 2007 by the Columbus-based pizza chain. At that time, about three-quarters of Donatos’ locations were owned by the company. That has changed. Including the Titan deal, Donatos has 179 restaurants in six states, and 63percent are owned by franchisees.

A stock research company called Trefis who is blogging at Forbes.com noted that McDonald’s company owned stores had a combined EBITDA margin of 24%, while franchised stores provide McDonald’s corporate with an 88% EBITDA margin.  Trefis doesn’t detail how they sourced information to arrive at these margin calculations, but there point was McDonald’s earns 4x as much by franchising a store rather than owning it directly.

McDonald’s owns about 6,200 (20%) of its 30,000 restaurants.

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I love comparables.   The average unit sales were higher than I expected:

source: Chicago Business

Wingstop has 465 restaurants around the country, with most in Texas, California, Florida and Louisiana. The chain does about 80% of its business in takeout orders and averages $770,000 in annual sales per restaurant, Mr. Evans said.

The chain sells 10 wings for around $6.30 in the Chicago area. Popular flavors include original hot, lemon pepper and hickory barbecue.

There has been an uptick in self serve frozen yogurt, and I think that is a smart move.  Why pay employees to do a task that customers would get the pleasure of doing, and they’ll pay for whatever they use?  You can run a busy store with two employees, one at the cash register and another cleaning up and refilling toppings.

The self service works like this – the customer fills their cup with as much frozen yogurt as they like and put on their own topping, and then proceed to the checkout where the yogurt is weighed and priced at $.30/ounce.  I’ve seen cookie shops in London, UK sell cookies by weight, and it works as people typically will make things a little bigger and end up paying a little more.

One player that “looks” good is the almost 100 location Yogurt-land (and it should with a $350k build out cost – see pic ).  They like to move into former Cold Stone Creamery locations, another smart move.  Others are Fiji Yogurt (5 locations), Yogurtini (1 open, 8 about to open). They have a new location in Weston, FL which I saw and it looks great.

See my previous post about rolling your own frozen yogurt shop if this concept interests you.

This was satisfying to read:
Hardy’s Franchisee pitches menu item and wins.

I am always surprised that Franchisors do not leverage their franchisees more in soliciting innovations.

Forums were down for about a week. They are now back up!

I spoke with a former franchisee of Nrgize, a smoothie bar by Kahala Corp of Stone Cold Creamery fame.  Nrgize has very good tasting healthy smoothies and complementary healthy foods.

The franchisee was open for about a year before closing its doors.  The location was in a popular suburban fitness center.  At first, the thought of exposure to all the healthy clientèle sounded like a sure win.  However, sales were lower than expected from gym members and public walkins from non-members to buy smoothies was extremely rare.

It’s a good lesson on understanding visit rates from a given population and repeat visits.  I’ve heard this rule of thumb and it seems to makes sense —– If you have a great food product and are the only provider, you will likely get close to 20% of the population to visit you twice a month.  With competition and a less than unique food offering, you should figure less than 12% will visit you twice a month.  You will quickly see that a 5k regular visiting member gym would yield at best 66 transactions per day.  If your average ticket is $5 at a 12% capture rate, your sales will be $118,800/year which is probably nowhere near profitable territory.

Quiznos

• Quiznos renegotiated it’s debt load and took in an infusion of equity capital from JP Morgan and other existing shareholders.   You can read both good and bad into this.  The good being the investors saw enough upside to invest more, the bad being Quiznos desperately needed this to happen so their financial soundness probably isn’t strong.

Chipotle

• Chipotle still showing a growing customer base with 1st quarter same-store sales up 4.3%.  They plan to open a new store every three days in 2010.

Fuddruckers

• Fuddruckers filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago.   It received approval to sell 62 Fuddruckers and a dozen Koo Koo Roo (similar to Boston Market) for $65 million.  It also plans to close 20 restaurants with “lease issues or low-foot traffic” stores.  Sales were down 10% in 2009.
• I woudn’t consider Fuddruckers part of the “better burger” craze of Five Guys and Counter, the brand is simply too old and retail square footage is way too large.  Red Robin’s are large in size too, but it invested plenty of capital in marketing and bradning to keep its brand appealing to the next generation of customers…much more so than Fuddruckers.

Pizza Fusion

• Plans to offset its entire “carbon footprint” by paying a percentage of sales to a company to construct renewable energy facilities.

Test time!  Is the following non-competition agreement enforceable?

“Frank, a Jimmy John’s franchisee, hired his nephew, Nick, to begin working at his Jimmy John’s franchise in Ohio.  Three months after Nick started working, Frank realized that Nick never returned the noncompete agreement he gave Nick during their initial discussions about the job.  The non-compete agreement states that Nick is prohibited from participating in another sub shop within 15 miles while employed and for two years following employment.

Frank has trusted Nick with recipes and procedures that are proprietary and trade secrets of Jimmy John’s, so Frank wants to be sure his entrepreneurial minded nephew doesn’t get any funny ideas about starting his own neighborhood sub shop.

When Frank approached Nick about signing the non-compete agreement, Nick said he forgot and promptly signed and returned the agreement to Nick.  Two months later, Nick quits to open up Nick’s Original Gourmet Subs a few blocks away.  It’s modern decor and authentic rocker vibe is attracting Frank’s customers away, and Frank’s sales drop 40%.   Frank sues Nick for breaching his non-compete agreement.  Who wins?

Hint:  The issue is whether an employee’s continued employment is sufficient consideration (is it enough benefit) for the employee to make the agreement enforceable.

The short answer is… it depends what state you are in.  In Ohio, it would be enforceable.  In Washington, South Carolina, Colorado and Minnesota, the non-compete agreement would not be enforceable because continued employment IS NOT sufficient consideration, courts require more benefit such as a pay raise.  In Illinois, the outcome is uncertain.  Illinois courts have held that continued employment for a “substantial period of time” will constitute sufficient consideration.  The length of time that the employee remains on the job, along with the manner in which the employment ends, are relevant factors for Illinois courts to consider when examining the validity of afterthought covenants.

In the above example, not only is Frank going to have a tough time stopping Nick, but Frank likely violated his franchise agreement which has it’s own set of ramifications.  So the lesson is don’t do casual hires!   Seemingly minor legal oversights can sink you.

As you’ve probably heard, Papa Murphy’s was acquired by a private investment firm for $180 million, about $150,000 per store.  I think it will turn out to be a good acquisition even with the steep price.  Papa Murphy’s has a combination of economic advantages that no other pizza chain has – 1)  it doesn’t have the overhead and capital costs of in-store baking, AND 2)  it is gaining strong penetration in grocery stores.

I admit, from the consumer’s stand point, a take and bake concept is a little confusing at first. “You mean I have to bake my own pizza?”   But that impression soon fades.   The pizza in its raw form looks fresh and the final product cooked in the home oven is as good as pizza delivery.   One hurdle overcome by the industry was the difficulty of using a home oven to cook a pizza because it doesn’t brown up well with the ordinary pizza dough recipe.   To solve this, chains like Papa Murphy’s increase browning by increasing the sugar percentage and providing a disposable reflective baking tray.

Another potential acquisition target is Homemade Pizza, a regional 25 unit chain in IL, MN and DC of classy take-and-bake stores where the average price of an “unbaked” large pizza is almost $20.   It seems to be doing well and has great branding.  Homemade Pizza pizzas are still priced on the high end because it is made with fresh and local ingredients.  The dough is prepared in a commissary to simplify store operations and reduce size requirements.

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Update:  Below is more interesting history on Papa Murphy’s from a November 2009 article in Portland Business Journal.  Average store sales are about $535k.

Papa Murphy’s is a holding of Charlesbank’s Equity Fund V, a $590 million private equity fund that holds several other food-related concerns, including Captain D’s Seafood and Del Taco.

Charlesbank teamed with Papa Murphy’s current president, John Barr, and company management, to recapitalize the pizza chain in a deal announced July 7, 2004. As part of the transaction, Wells Fargo Bank provided a revolving line of credit.

Terry Collins formed Papa Murphy’s in 1995 by merging Petaluma, Calif.-based Murphy’s Pizza with Hillsboro-based Papa Aldo’s. Together, the two chains had 140 locations.

By the time it partnered with Charlesbank, Papa Murphy’s had grown to about 800 stores in 24 states.

In late 2009, it has 1,153 locations in 32 states and two Canadian provinces. It has expanded largely by franchising its concept.

The company owns about 50 stores. The balance are operated by a network of more than 450 franchisees

More than half its franchisees own only one or two stores.

Quick service segment 4th quarter average same store sales: -4.7%

• Arby’s: -11% (only down 7.4% in January)
• Wendy’s: -3%
• Sonic:  -13% (blames the heavy snow)
• Carl’s Jr.: -2.6%
• Hardees: -6.2%
• McDonald’s: +.6%

Casual dining segment 4th quarter average same store sales: -4.2%

• Buffalo Wild Wings:  +2.0%
  • fun facts—-Buffalo Wild Wings essentially sells a neighborhood sports bar concept. It features Buffalo style chicken wings, burgers, and other “bar” foods. Takeout represents about 13% of sales. Another 22% of total sales are derived, not surprisingly, from traditional chicken wings. Boneless wings, which have better margins than the regular kind, were 19% of Q4 sales, up from 17% in Q4 2008.
• Famous Daves:  -6.3% for company-owned restaurants and -8.5% for franchise-operated restaurants.
• Morton’s: -11.6%

Fast Casual segment 4th quarter average same store sales: -.08%

• Panera Bread: +7.4%
• Cosi: -11.9%

Pizza segment 4th quarter average same store sales: +1.8%

• Domino’s: +1.8%
• Papa  Murphy’s +2.0%

Family dining segment 4th quarter average same store sales: -2.7%

• Steak n Shake: +14.4%
• Frisch’s Big Boy: -.4%
• Cracker Barrel: -.2%
• Denny’s: -6.1% at corporate owned units, -7.2% at franchised units
• iHOP: -3.1%

[updated so moved back to the top]

Founded in 1999, Spicy Pickle is not have a good run.  In 2008 the company’s income was $4.4 million but their expenses were $10 million, for a loss $5.6 million.  In 2009 income was $4.1 million, and they slashed expenses and payroll to $6.1 million, for a loss of $2 million.  They now have $800,000 left in the bank.   They are desperately working on a new round of financing.   I’d have to see unit performance and lease rates, but it could be an attractive acquisition for veteran QSR investor.

It also franchises a brand called Bread Garden Urban Cafe…a Canadian sandwich and bakery QSR I never heard of.   The franchisor employs 28 people.

Update: March 18, 2010, 10:00PM CST

I updated the above financials stats with more details.  I was still curious about Spicy Pickle’s financial predicament so I did more research.

Back in 2007, Spicy Pickle needed to raise more money.  So it sold preferred equity that gave the holders superior rights to its assets and priority to dividend payments, and I’m sure other special treatments were in the agreement like rights of refusal for issuing more preferred equity.  Fast forward to 2009, and Spicy Pickle needs money again.  What’s left to give away?  Not much, so it had to buy back the preferred equity.  In 2009 with around $2 million in cash left, Spicy Pickle paid $1 million of its common stock and $800,000 cash to buyout the preferred equity holders.  Clearly they wanted those preferreds out!

In Boston, the area developer is not paying its bills.   If Qdoba was the only fast fresh Mexican game in town they’d be doing fine.   That segment is being flooded with new concepts and the industry is suffering.   But, over-staturation is the norm now with with every ‘hot’ franchise segment nowadays.   Things will eventually shake out with the strong surviving.

Staying on the pizza topic for a moment…..Little Caesar’s and Donatos (both pizza) have a large number of former company executives that have transitioned to franchisees. That is a good sign and both are adding units faster than their counterparts in the industry, each for different reasons (LC for price, D for uniqueness). Little’s Caesars hot-and-ready pizza deals have been a hit with a simultaneous improvement in quality from high speed impingement ovens. Donatos’ pizza is a very unique thin pizza similar to a St. Louis style or Chicago thin style, and it has operations and pizza assembly down quicker than anyone I’ve seen. Surprisingly, Little Caesars makes their own dough while Donatos uses preformed frozen dough that arrives ready to bake on a disc.

Asking a franchisor salesman how many executives or former executives are franchisees is a great question.

I don’t know about you, but I like the new Donatos store design.

I thought Obika, a Fresh Mozzarella Bar concept from Europe, would do fine in the big cities and may ultimately make a good franchise, succeeding by shadowing the locations of Au bon Pain. I assumed their dozen overseas locations would have been prepared a powerful USA launch. But, the NYC location is not earning universal fondness from New Yorkers.

The look is modern and euro, and it has the right formula of escalating a familiar food to a higher level of passion. However, it fails in execution – service is too slow and the sandwiches are simply average. When people are paying a premium ($10 a sandwich), your niche is smaller and there is more pressure to earn repeat business from the local workers. I would imagine they have to do at least 350 transactions per day to break even. Eventually the number of potential new customers will dwindle to unsustainable levels and survival will depend on repeat business. I still think Obika will make it, but the chances of it being a 10+ unit chain in the USA are very slim.