Chipotle’s new fast mexican asian concept dubbed ShopHouse has only been open a few months in Washington DC. Their menu consists of Banh Mi sandwiches and rice or noodle bowls with meats. The reviews on Yelp vary, with an average of 3 out of 5 stars. On the negative side, comments seem to congregate on the odd combinations of tastes, blandness, and unlikable slaw on too many items. On the positive side, employee helpfulness and value seem to rank high. Many restaurant groups are pursuing this market – Wagamama, Big Bowl, Stir Crazy, Panda Express (and all the indoor mall food court offerings), and Pick up Stix. Technomic claims that sales at limited-service Asian restaurants grew 5.9% in 2010, faster than any other menu category, and in 2011 sales at Asian dining spots are expected to rise 5% compared to 4% for all limited-service restaurants. If you’re a CEO of a restaurant group looking to ride the trends, this is your new market. P.F. Chang’s, who also owns the popular casual restaurant Pei Wei, is creating a “more casual” concept called Pei Wei Asian Market, to compete in this fast service segment. It won’t be the notorious scoop style forged by Panda Express and Chipotle, but what they call a diner style with no table service. It sounds like the same style of Panera Bread but with a few more ready-to-eat packages at checkout. The fast asian fusion segment seems to be one that will have staying power. I like the segment, and there is a place for the Panera of Asian food, a speedy and quality layer above Panda Express. Just like Chipotle forged Mexican cuisine into the weekly rotation of American lunches, the arguably healthy fast asian fusion will also continue to grow and improve. — Franchising …

Larger fitness clubs are seeing a drop in membership, and former fast growth clubs are turning flat to negative. This is not just happening in the USA, but also in Australia where giant Fitness First is seeing a decline in membership. Fitness First has turned flat to negative, with increased competition from Anytime Fitness, personal trainers and low cost rivals. It’s a tough industry where you have franchises like Planet Fitness offering a no-frills membership for $10/month.

I just finished negotiating a commercial lease for a restaurant and thought this would be a good opportunity to relay some real time advice on the topic. Everything is negotiable in a lease agreement.  You simply have to ask for it in a sensible and compelling manner.  But just because everything is negotiable doesn’t mean you should try to negotiate everything.  Pick your battles, and accept some reasonable offers. When you’ve been emailing red-lined lease drafts back and forth with the landlord and you’ve reached a stalemate on several key issues, schedule a face-to-face meeting to hammer out the rest.  It will usually help drive things to completion. Be reasonable.  Don’t try to hammer the landlord on every aspect of the lease.  For example, if the price per square foot is reasonable compared to the market, then offer to pay the full rate and focus on other things like build out assistance, CAM, start of lease payments, hiatus of lease payments for remodeling, personal guarantees, etc.  Some landlords hold dear the price the receive per square foot but will heavily negotiate many other things. List everything in an exhibit what you will take with you at the expiration or termination of the lease, or the landlord will claim it as a permanent fixture or improvement and not let you take it. Most parties routinely start a lease negotiation with a Letter of Intent (“LOI”) to hammer out the big details like pricing, tenant improvements and the like.  A minority of other will recommend not starting off with a LOI, such as the self-proclaimed “Lease Coach” who touts his $1k-$7k services at the National Restaurant Association trade shows.  What’s my opinion?  In a perfect world I’d prefer starting out with the lease but I don’t think in the end it …

last edited: December 7, 2011, 9pm [added recommendation on beer & wine]; also edited on December 13, 2010, 1:05am [improved a few poorly worded sentences] I’ve noticed several franchised “Urban Flats Flatbread & Wine Co.” closing this year in the southeast, such as Orlando FL, Winter Park FL, Lawrenceville GA,  and Atlanta GA (pictured to the right).  Something clearly isn’t resonating with potential and repeat customers.   Many franchises suffer from this ‘surprise’ problem leaving execs scratching their heads about what is going wrong.    I’ll put on my pundit hat and give you my opinion and recommendations. HOW RESTAURANTS ARE JUDGED BY CUSTOMERS: People will instinctively judge a restaurant on three elements, and to draw repeat business you need to excel in at least two of these (and be at least average in the third) in the eyes of your local customer base: FOOD:  Is the food memorable and superb all around? PRICING: Is the pricing at or below the competition; does it provide value? AMBIANCE/EXPERIENCE:  Is the customer experience superb with a unique and comfortable interior design? A restaurant could succeed by satisfying only two of three criteria.  For example, you could provide an excellent customer experience and have great food, but prices are too high.   Cheesecake Factory and J. Alexanders are examples of this but both still generate excellent sales. HOW URBAN FLATS RATES: According to most of the reviews I’ve read online, Urban Flats rates as follows: FOOD: Average food, flats are minimalistic…not bad but not excellent either PRICING: A bit high – $10 cheeseburger, $8.50 Loaded Potato appetizer, $10 “flats” pizza AMBIANCE/EXPERIENCE: Average, some described it as trying too hard to be cool.   Music is too loud to talk.  If you have to describe your restaurant as hip in advertising, you probably are not. Other …

DineEquity, owner of Applebees and IHOP brands, is trying smartly trying to avoid discounting their menu like the rest of industry. Their strategy to get customers in the door focus on appealing healthy “skillets” price at $9+ which currently make up about 10% of sales. The “2 for $20” deal of an appetizer and two entrees now makes up 18% of Applebee’s sales mix, down from around 20% in previous quarters, Stewart said. Applebee’s promoted that offer through most of last year but has since made it a mainstay on the menu that’s not supported prominently by ads.Applebee’s margins rose slightly last quarter, to 14.1% to 14%, helped by lower food costs, although that was offset partly by more marketing to try to bring in guests. Same-store sales were down 1.6% at Applebee’s systemwide, an improvement from prior quarters, while guest counts continued to decline on year.

I spoke with a former franchisee of Nrgize, a smoothie bar by Kahala Corp of Stone Cold Creamery fame.  Nrgize has very good tasting healthy smoothies and complementary healthy foods. The franchisee was open for about a year before closing its doors.  The location was in a popular suburban fitness center.  At first, the thought of exposure to all the healthy clientèle sounded like a sure win.  However, sales were lower than expected from gym members and public walkins from non-members to buy smoothies was extremely rare. It’s a good lesson on understanding visit rates from a given population and repeat visits.  I’ve heard this rule of thumb and it seems to makes sense —– If you have a great food product and are the only provider, you will likely get close to 20% of the population to visit you twice a month.  With competition and a less than unique food offering, you should figure less than 12% will visit you twice a month.  You will quickly see that a 5k regular visiting member gym would yield at best 66 transactions per day.  If your average ticket is $5 at a 12% capture rate, your sales will be $118,800/year which is probably nowhere near profitable territory.

As you’ve probably heard, Papa Murphy’s was acquired by a private investment firm for $180 million, about $150,000 per store.  I think it will turn out to be a good acquisition even with the steep price.  Papa Murphy’s has a combination of economic advantages that no other pizza chain has – 1)  it doesn’t have the overhead and capital costs of in-store baking, AND 2)  it is gaining strong penetration in grocery stores. I admit, from the consumer’s stand point, a take and bake concept is a little confusing at first. “You mean I have to bake my own pizza?”   But that impression soon fades.   The pizza in its raw form looks fresh and the final product cooked in the home oven is as good as pizza delivery.   One hurdle overcome by the industry was the difficulty of using a home oven to cook a pizza because it doesn’t brown up well with the ordinary pizza dough recipe.   To solve this, chains like Papa Murphy’s increase browning by increasing the sugar percentage and providing a disposable reflective baking tray. Another potential acquisition target is Homemade Pizza, a regional 25 unit chain in IL, MN and DC of classy take-and-bake stores where the average price of an “unbaked” large pizza is almost $20.   It seems to be doing well and has great branding.  Homemade Pizza pizzas are still priced on the high end because it is made with fresh and local ingredients.  The dough is prepared in a commissary to simplify store operations and reduce size requirements. _______________________________________________________ Update:  Below is more interesting history on Papa Murphy’s from a November 2009 article in Portland Business Journal.  Average store sales are about $535k. Papa Murphy’s is a holding of Charlesbank’s Equity Fund V, a $590 million private equity fund that …

Elevation Burger, the well branded organic better-burger franchise, closed it’s Baltimore franchise.  Reviews were pretty bad. As a whole, healthy, all-natural, and organic concepts have been having a hard time making their sales goals,  except for notable exceptions like Chipotle.  Everybody says they’ll go for healthy options, right? You have to watch what people do and not what they say.  I’m sure most people reading this post would say during a focus group, “Yes, I’ll pay a little premium for the organic meal”.  But, in reality what do you do?   Most of the time you purchase based on convenience, taste and price as long as you deem the quality above an acceptable level.  I was reminded of this recently from a PepsiCo executive.  Chipotle is the rare bird – it succeeds because it tastes good, is priced competitively, the line moves very fast, and most people don’t even realize the food is mostly organic. Another “healthy” brand to watch is Naked Pizza because it has signed several area development agreements for hundreds of units but lacks experienced management. A reviewer on Yelp stated, the “cheese was rubbery and the pizza was cardboard” – ouch! Naked Pizza has gathered remarkable attention for only having a single location.  The buzz is the result of winning an open venture funding call in a blog post from billionaire Mark Cuban.  It’s also reknowned for embracing of twitter (a billboard simply lists it’s twitter address).  A recent article summarizes the Naked Pizza idea: NakedPizza’s solution is an all-natural, fortified pizza, made with simple, unprocessed ingredients, informed by science and made affordable and available through the proven carry-out and delivery model. It’s signature difference is a crust made with a diverse blend of “ancestral” whole grains, seeds and beans fortified with prebiotic fiber and probiotics (live, …

* last updated January 2011 This is a list of some interviews and newspaper recognition over the past couple of years.  There are many more but these are all that I can remember at the moment. 2006 ALM’s Law Journal Newsletters Q&A with Franchise Pundit Founders, May 2006 2007 Wall Street Journal What Small-Biz Owners Can Learn From Blogs, August 26, 2007 2008 New York Times Go On, Leave Your Job, February 28, 2008 Franchise Times Entering Blogosphere, May 2008 Wall Street Journal Picking the Best Franchises (and Avoiding the Worst), July 1, 2008 The Columbus Dispatch Losing Their Appetite, December 18, 2008 2009 Journal Sentinel (Milwaukee, WI) Kitchen Feast Turns to Famine, January 3, 2009 Wall Street Journal Blogs Provide Insight to Would be Franchisees, March 24, 2009 Food Technology Magazine Building a New Model for Meal Assembly, Spring 2009 Wall Street Journal What Small-biz Owners Can Learn From Blogs, August 26, 2009 Columbus Dispatch Losing Their Appetite, December 18, 2009 2010 Entrepreneur Magazine Coming out spring 2010 2011 The Houston Chronicle Negotiation Strategies to Lease a Restaurant, 2011

I’m a local Chicagoan so Potbelly’s Sandwich Works news is interesting to me.  As you’ve probably heard, Potbelly is now franchising their potbelly stove themed restaurant.  Their web site lists the total cost to open between $500k-$750k with a heavy $40k franchise fee. I predicted this early in 2009 after I noticed job posting listing franchising experience and a little snooping. A previous insider comment to a blog post on Potbelly has always stuck in my head which makes me pause about the opportunity.  I’m pretty sure I know the person who wrote the comment: Potbelly is another stab in the dark venture that suffers from ridiculous logistical design, high labor costs, exorbitant pricey locations, and excessive buildout costs.  Is there any wonder thay GREw so much.  did you expect them to just sit on the 100,000,000 raised by Starbuck’s Maveron Group.  funny, potbelly has turned one quarterly profit in about 6 years and had three presidents in three years.  The lines which everyone seems to think are the sign of success are a sign of basic incompetency and presume people will continue to buy into hype for a three day old bun baked by Turano (same as the other great success story Quizno’s ) and generic low quality meat that’s run through a conveyor oven which can’t be delivered or catered without serious degradation in quality.  other than the expensive logo vanity packaging someone and the illusion of quality based on 500,000 of faux antiques, please explain what is original or significant quality.  the sandwiches are the smallest, the most expensive per ounce, and the worst produced in terms of speed and efficiency than any I have ever seen and the lines aren’t looking too long these days.  Nothing angers me more than a hot concept  and has …

One of my favorite fast casual restaurants is Nando’s who is famous for their marinated Peri Peri Chicken cooked over an open flame.  I ate at their London, England locations multiple times and it has quickly become my go-to restaurant when I’m there.   One Nando’s opened in the USA last year in Washington D.C., and I believe it is a corporate owned location. They do franchise in Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, Namibia, and Australia, but not the USA. Their mix of food is clever. While it is a sit down restaurant, ordering takes place at a central counter and the food is brought out to your table. For appetizers that are served immediately, the offering is Peri Peri nuts, spicy mixed olives, and humus with Peri Peri drizzle…all healthy, all tasty detours from the typical high-fat fried appetizers.  See their menu below:Nandosusa Main Menu Nando’s includes elements that would make it a strong franchise contender in my book (it doesn’t have brand recognition yet in the USA, however). — Great Tasting Food — Unique Customer Experience — Improves on an already familiar taste – chicken — Casual and fun environment — Employees seem happy — Branding is authentic….Portuguese presented in a fun way On the down side, — it doesn’t have brand recognition yet — food preparation is based on human judgment rather than fool proof systems. For example, the chicken is pulled from the open flames based upon a human’s judgment that the chicken is sufficiently cooked.

What’s could be worse for Play N Trade and Gamestop than Walmart competing against you in the resale market? Game platform manufactures switching to download-only platforms, so there are no discs or cartridges to buy or re-sell.

BlueMauMau recently had an article about the increase in “better burger” franchises.  I too have seen in the past two years an increase in the high-end burger space from both independent stores like The Daily Grind in Port Orange, FL (great store-baked buns) and franchises like Cheeburger Cheeburger and Five Guys.  I recently performed a valuation on a group of high-end burger franchises for a client and I walked away with mixed feelings.  The key driver of profitability was the lease costs, and the key driver for sales was location.  The basic formula for a decent ROIC (return on invested capital) was convenient, high traffic location with a rent at or below 6% of gross sales.  This ends up being the simple formula for most restaurants.   Your restaurant’s cost targets should be: Prime Costs (Food and Labor) a combined 60% (about 30% each depending on type of restaurant), rent below 6% of gross sales, interest costs below 1.2%, owner’s net profit at least 10%, which leaves about 22% of your gross sales left for overhead, maintenance, royalty payments, advertising, and other costs. As you can see, an 8% royalty and advertising costs for a franchise cost takes a big chuck out your remaining 22% budget.The HARDEST part of predicting a restaurant franchise’s success is forecasting sales.   Forecasting sales requires an analysis and comparison of other local restaurants, proximities (closeness to road, attractions, anchor stores, etc.), parking/drive thru, local demographics, competition, signage, brand awareness, and many other details.  If your sales projections cannot confidently support sales at least 20% more than your break-even point, don’t do they deal.

Walmart is now jumping into the used game trading industry with exchange kiosks.  How does this impact Play N’ Trade and Game Stop? I’m certain this is a smart venture for Walmart. A friend of mine interviewed at RedBox and told me the kiosk business model when scaled is tremendously profitable, and I’m sure Walmart has first hand knowledged of this model from having the RedBox DVD kiosks in their stores.  Additionally, attracting young teens into your brick-and-mortar stores undoubtedly is a strategic goal of Walmart. How greatly this impacts Play N’ Trade and Gamestop is questionable. It is hard to spin this as “helping the industry” as surely Walmart will take more from competitors than it increases the I contacted Larry Plotnick, CEO of Play N’ Trade for his reaction to the Walmart news.  In response, Larry noted: We have been aware of this test for some time, and have discussed the use of similar kiosks within our own stores; however it does not fit within our business model. The impact of Walmart is taken very seriously, considering the size and scope of their business and we will be watching and tracking their progress in detail. We believe there is positive implications to Walmart “legitimizing” used game and trading to a larger/broader demographic We strongly believe that our customer service, product offering and immediate customer gratification creates a better overall trading venue then does a kiosk type environment. Studies have shown that the significant majority of game trading is done by serious/hardcore gamers that prefer to trade in games for new gaming product (which is typically done in specialty retail not in big box stores) Larry’s points are fair.  Walmart will never be able to create the gamer atmosphere of Play N’ Trade, and gaming is all about experience.  Nevertheless, I …

Looks like Houlihan’s still can’t find the right balance of seating capacity, location, and affordable rent.  Their Stamford franchisee was open 6 months and then closed after not paying for those 6 months. "There’s a lot of competition, and 250 seats is a lot to fill and a lot of rent to pay," he said. "Sometimes, smaller is better."

Current CEO Rick Shaden in a Fox Business interview talks about his competition with Subway and the new torpedo sandwich.  A few notes: Blames slowdown on “economy and increased costs” Says customers want cheaper sandwiches Touts the $4 Torpedo sandwich, claims it is the “first portable sub”, “modern sandwich” Head to head to Subway, more innovative and edgy Frames Quiznos as a “challenger brand” to Subway If I’m a franchisee, and my problem is low profit margins, I do NOT want to LOWER my prices…it just makes the problems worse.  However, from a franchisor’s perspective, earnings are based on TOTAL system sales.  So if forcing lower-priced sandwiches increases total system-wide sales but still lowers the franchisee’s profitability, some CEO’s may think that is necessary tradeoff.   Their short-term financial rewards often pave this path.  The interest between the franchise and franchisor are unfortunately are misaligned.If you haven’t seen the torpedo sandwich Shaden speaks of, here is a commercial for it:The Million Sub promotion left many customers upset when many stores refused to honor the “free sub” coupons, including a member of my family. The franchisees apparently are not reimbursed by corporate for the coupon – OUCH!Quiznos is in a tough spot. Their toasted sub concept is no longer unique, and the food and operational costs are still inflated due to franchisor imposed required purchasing.